When to kick off? Heat stress and scheduling strategies for FIFA 2026

This study assesses the risk of extreme heat at the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted by USA, Canada and Mexico, and explores its implications for scheduling football matches across the 16 host cities. As climate change drives more frequent and intense heatwaves, the safety of players, officials, and fans becomes a growing concern, especially for mega-events like the FIFA World Cup. While prior tournaments have adapted (e.g., Qatar 2022’s winter schedule), this study is the first to provide hourly heat stress modeling using the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) – a widely used measure of heat stress incorporating temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind speed – over a 20-year period. The authors analyzed hourly meteorological data (temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind) from 2003–2022 across all 16 host cities, using the WBGT to simulate heat stress conditions. They computed the frequency of WBGT exceedance beyond key thresholds (26°C, 28°C, 32°C) during June–July afternoons, when most matches are scheduled.

The study revealed that nearly 90% of host locations exceed heat stress thresholds in an average year, with six cities (primarily Miami and Monterrey, but also Philadelphia, Kansas City, Boston and New York ) at highest risk. Afternoon matches are especially problematic, with WBGTs regularly exceeding levels at which FIFA guidelines recommend cooling breaks or match postponement. Event managers should strongly consider rescheduling matches outside peak heat hours or adapting venues (e.g., indoor cooling) in high-risk cities, to protect health and preserve performance.

CITE: Mullan, D., Barr, I., Brannigan, N., Flood, N., Gibson, O. R., Hambly, C., Kennedy-Asser, A.T., Kielt, A.C., Matthews, T. & Orr, M. (2025). Extreme heat risk and the potential implications for the scheduling of football matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. International Journal of Biometeorology, 69, 753-763. doi: 10.1007/s00484-025-02852-4

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