Can cities keep hosting the Olympic marathon in a warming world?

This study investigates whether a total of 70 cities selected in 25 countries will still be able to host the Olympic marathon in the future, considering the impacts of climate change, socioeconomic development, and adaptation strategies. Climate change is increasingly threatening endurance sports like marathons, with high temperatures already causing dropouts and relocations in recent Olympic events. The purpose of this study is to explain the feasibility of hosting the Olympic marathon more comprehensively than before, considering the variations in climate change projections, the hourly climatic characteristics of cities, future socioeconomic conditions, and the efficiency of adaptation measures.

The authors analyzed the 70 cities using hourly Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) data projected from seven climate models under four emission scenarios and five socioeconomic pathways. The conditions were modeled for the mid- and late-21st century, evaluating which cities could safely host Olympic marathons under various adaptation measures. Without adaptation, the number of cities suitable for hosting the marathon could fall by up to 27% by the late 21st century — with Asia facing the greatest loss. However, implementing measures such as moving races to cooler months, nighttime scheduling, or multi-city hosting can make over 95% of cities able to host the event, even under high-emissions scenarios.

If the Olympic Games to maintain regional diversity and global accessibility in a warming world, adaptation are worth considering, in addition to mitigating the impacts of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Importantly, these adaptation measures will be necessary for many cities to be able to host marathons with relatively low heat risk.

CITE: Oyama, T., Takakura, J. Y., Fujii, M., Nakajima, K., & Hijioka, Y. (2022). Feasibility of the Olympic marathon under climatic and socioeconomic change. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 4010. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07934-6